The Sunday Take: By-elections give Sunak and Starmer cause for hope and optimism

Public Affairs Director Matthew McPherson gives his take on the recent trio of by-elections, and what happens next

Whilst many expected this week’s trio of by-elections to result in wipeout for Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party, the results gave the leaders of each of England’s three main party leaders cause for hope ahead of the next general election.

For Rishi Sunak, his victory in Uxbridge gives the party hope that - with a single clear message - he can turn torrid polling numbers around; for Keir Starmer, his record-breaking swing in true-blue Selby gives optimism that Labour can win in places they haven’t done since the days of Tony Blair; whilst for Ed Davey, his landslide in Somerton and Frome indicates a South West revival for the Liberal Democrats is possible.

Despite that, history tells us we can’t use the results of by-elections to predict the outcome of the next general election, and whilst it is essential for opposition parties to win by-elections to form the next government, they aren't alone enough to take victory for granted.

The Liberal Democrats’ victory in the 2013 Eastleigh by-election gave the party a false sense of optimism about the strength of their local base of support ahead of their 2015 wipeout. Labour’s record breaking swing in the 1990 Mid Staffordshire by-election did nothing to help the party hold the seat in the following general election. After the Conservatives unprecedented victory in the 2021 Hartlepool by-election, nobody would think the party could be twenty points behind in the national opinion polls a little over a year later.

So what do the by-elections really mean about the state of the country ahead of the next general election - and what happens next?

Labour’s victory in Selby and Ainsty was without doubt the standout result of the night. It is a seat that embodies the full Conservative coalition of support across the country - traditional rural voters, alongside new red wall-style Northern voters. The result suggests the Labour Party has done a huge amount to win back support of voters who backed Brexit, that turned away from the party in droves during the 2017 and 2019 elections. But the result is undoubtedly mired by the unexpected narrow loss of Uxbridge in west London. Starmer has - probably correctly - blamed Sadiq Khan’s controversial ULEZ scheme for the loss, saying at yesterday’s meeting of the party’s National Policy Forum that “we’re doing something very wrong if policies put forward by the Labour Party end up on each and every Tory leaflet”.

So what next for Labour? It feels speculation about Starmer’s final reshuffle can now be measured in years, not just months. His landslide in Selby, may give the Labour Leader the confidence to finally reshuffle and bring in new blood to his Shadow Cabinet, such as Alison McGovern and Liz Kendall, and align his portfolios to the new Departments, such as Science and Technology and Business and Trade, created by Sunak in his own reshuffle earlier this year. It also gives an opportunity for Starmer to find a role better suited to Deputy Leader Angela Rayner’s talents, perhaps at Levelling Up or Work and Pensions.

On the other hand, the Prime Minister has been spared becoming the first leader since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three by-elections on a single day, and the victory in Uxbridge could give MPs cause for hope that, with the right message, they can win. Despite speculation it would happen on Friday, Downing Street are now looking at a number of opportunities for the long-speculated Cabinet reshuffle, which could see rising stars such as Claire Coutinho, Laura Trott and Richard Holden promoted to key roles ahead of Rishi Sunak’s first party Conference in October, the Autumn Statement, and King’s Speech in November.

The political challenge for the government remains enormous. Most opinion polls put the Labour Party between fifteen and twenty points ahead - enough to win an overall majority, and no party has ever won a fifth term in power since universal suffrage.

If there is a message from these by-elections, it is that nothing is certain. Labour have momentum, and their result in Selby suggests they are on course to win. However, Sunak has shown that if he can regain an advantage on the issues, his party can win.

The next election is still all to play for, and for purpose-led organisations, there has never been a more important time to communicate key messages to both the main political parties, who are all looking for the next big idea.