Read: Local Elections: former Labour MP and political strategist Lord Walney gives his take
On the face of it, the local election results are a resounding success for Labour and dreadful for the Tories.
Labour is not only making progress in areas where the party was already represented in strength, but making gains in parts of the country which are especially important.
In Medway - home to Parliamentary constituencies crucial to Blair’s 1997 landslide such as Rochester, Gillingham and Chatham - Labour gained 17 seats to win the Council for the first time in 25 years.
For decades Stoke on Trent was a bastion of Labour support - a city where it was often argued the Labour vote would be weighed, rather than counted. The post-Brexit years changed all of that, with the Conservatives returning three MPs in the city in 2019. Last night saw major shifts again, with the party winning 29 of the Council’s 14 seats to take an overall majority.
And in the Home Counties, traditionally Conservative areas such as Windsor and Maidenhead, Brentwood, and Hertsmere, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Independents made major gains, turfing the Conservatives out of power.
There are more results to come, but the picture is already clear - Labour are making signifiant headway in key constituencies they need to win in order to secure a Labour government at the next general election.
How reliable are all this individual battles for local councillors as an indicator of the national political picture? Does this mean we are solidly on track for a Labour government after the next general election? I am not so sure actually. Yes, they were the first electoral test for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak after a year of turmoil, including three Prime Ministers, a dramatic rise in inflation, and a crash in the pound. And they may be the final big electoral test next before the next general election. But for all the importance of local authorities in shaping their communities, and the value of a strong local representative at ward level, in many people’s minds in many areas this will have been a ‘free vote’ – a chance to register discontent with the Conservatives without needing to weigh up whether you would prefer the alternative of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party governing the country.
If I were still sat in Labour HQ I might be more worried about our position going into the election run-in, and Sir Keir Starmer’s resilience to what Tory election strategist Isaac Levido and his super-sharp crowd will unleash on him over the next 12 months, than they might be worried about us. It is interesting talking to Conservative MPs in the ‘Red Wall’ seats that Labour lost at the last election. Many of them remain upbeat – largely because they pick up very little enthusiasm for Labour on the doorstep, just supreme annoyance with them.
There is a chance of course that the calamities of the last 12 months have created such a strong desire for change that they will want the Tories gone whatever the alternative. But it is clear from this campaign that the Tories have decided on a narrow route to clinging on:
Clear up as much as possible of the economic mess as they can,
Focus on immigration, where the current mess and pressure may be a vulnerability but they think their instincts will chime with the public more than Labour – particularly in constituencies like Barrow and Furness that I used to represent
Sow as much doubt as they can in the minds of the public on Sir Keir’s capacity as a leader
Its an ugly strategy, and one which a strong Labour alternative vision can overcome – particularly given the current problems with which many of you are struggling. But the smarter people in the Labour camp have realised that they didn’t necessarily pass their own key test in these local elections . More important than the test of how many seats they could win, was whether they could connect with the public and inspire them with that alternative vision of change.
There are very good people in Labour determined to raise their game on that test and thinking hard about their policy offer. And there are signs that Rishi’s greater rigour on the big issues is having an effect. This is an important period ahead.
