Read: How Labour can translate local success into a national victory

Nick Forbes CBE served in Sir Keir Starmer’s Shadow Cabinet until 2022, and now leads the Purpose Coalition’s work with the Labour Party through Purpose with Labour.

While political commentary on local election results is always caveated with a warning against extrapolating them to predict general election outcomes, it doesn’t stop numerous column inches being published about what they mean for the prospects of the main political parties. With a general election due next year, there has been intense speculation about how each might fare based on last week’s results.

In short, the results show Labour is on course to form a majority government, with Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. 

For the first time since 2002, Labour is now the largest party of local government, and the party’s best local election result since 1997, with a nine-point lead over the Conservatives. Labour gained over 500 seats across England and control of another 22 councils. It won control of areas that will be crucial battlegrounds. In Kent, Labour took Medway - home to the parliamentary seats of Gillingham, Rochester and Chatham - crucial to Tony Blair’s three majority Labour victories, alongside key marginal constituencies of Dover, Swindon, Plymouth, Stoke on Trent and Blackpool. It won seats in the former red wall of the north and East Midlands, polling the most votes at local levels in places where the Conservatives had five-figure majorities at the last election. Crucially, it won seats in many areas that had voted Leave in the Brexit referendum - suggesting that the consensus built by Johnson in 2019 is breaking down and Brexit is no longer the main political driver of voting intention. 

So the numbers are looking good. These are significant inroads and the Labour Party can be confident that it is heading in the right direction. It ran a campaign that was rightly focused on the cost-of-leaving pressures that households are facing up and down the country as inflation soars. That clearly spoke to voters but the Party can’t afford to be complacent. Creating a message of hope, and building confidence that Labour is the only party that can deliver, will be crucial. Despite all the promises made by the Conservatives, deep rooted challenges still exist. There is still a lack of opportunity and too many regional inequalities in areas where people have often felt left behind for generations. That translates into under-attainment at school, more ill-health with shorter life expectancies and poorer productivity at a time when an economy, battered by the pandemic and a cost-of-living crisis, desperately needs to ensure that everyone is in a position to contribute to future prosperity.

The success of Labour in the local elections in many of these areas is an indication that voters value the authenticity of the Party’s commitment to levelling up and its success in areas of the country where Labour local authorities are already collaborating with local organisations on the ground to deliver a better quality of life for residents. That means making a positive impact on the issues that matter most to their communities and supporting the most vulnerable where it will make the most difference.  

In February Sir Keir Starmer launched five national missions which will form the building blocks of a Labour manifesto. Centered on growth, clean energy, the NHS, crime and education, each mission has measurable goals. The Party’s new approach to governing will be marked by transparency, flexibility, innovation and a willingness to work with partners whose expertise and local knowledge will help to deliver progressive results.  

Those are the hallmarks of an ambitious, purpose-led approach aimed at maximising a positive social impact - but more work needs to be done to put some meat on the bones of this framework. There is a huge opportunity here for the Purpose Coalition, as our members have demonstrated with passion and commitment the difference that can be made. I was part of Sir Keir’s Shadow Cabinet for some years so I know him and his team well. They’re open to fresh ideas, based on practical experience on the ground - so I look forward to highlighting the leadership shown by Purpose Coalition members in the months ahead. By working together we can help shape a new approach which genuinely creates opportunity for all. And that would be a national victory we can all be proud of.